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A/B Test Duration Calculator — And Why Most People Get It Wrong

February 10, 2025
8 min read

"How long should I run my A/B test?" It's the most common question in experimentation. And most people get it wrong — either stopping too early or running way too long.

Duration Calculator

The smallest improvement you want to detect (e.g., 20% = detecting a change from 3% to 3.6%)

Sample Size Needed

25,350

Estimated Duration

26 days

Approximately

4 weeks

Why Most People Get It Wrong

Mistake #1: Stopping when you see a winner

Early results are unreliable. A test showing 95% confidence on day 2 might flip completely by day 7. Always run for the full calculated duration.

Mistake #2: Ignoring day-of-week effects

Behavior differs by day. Always run for at least 1 full week (ideally 2) to capture these variations.

Mistake #3: Expecting to detect tiny changes

Detecting a 5% improvement requires 10x more sample size than detecting a 50% improvement. Be realistic about what you can detect.

The Math (Simply Explained)

Test duration depends on four factors:

Traffic

More visitors = faster tests. Double your traffic, halve your duration.

Baseline Conversion Rate

Higher conversion rates need less sample size. A 10% rate tests faster than a 1% rate.

Minimum Detectable Effect

Smaller effects need bigger samples. Detecting 5% lift is much harder than 50%.

Number of Variants

More variants = more sample needed. Each variant splits your traffic further.

Rules of Thumb

Minimum: 1 week

Never run a test for less than 7 days, regardless of sample size.

Sweet spot: 2-4 weeks

Most tests should run 2-4 weeks for reliable results.

Maximum: 6-8 weeks

If a test needs more than 8 weeks, consider testing a bigger change.

What If You Don't Have Enough Traffic?

Test bigger changes (larger effects are easier to detect)
Focus on high-traffic pages
Use micro-conversions (clicks vs purchases)
Accept longer test durations
Test fewer variants at once

The Bottom Line

Calculate your required duration before starting. Commit to that duration. Don't peek and stop early. The discipline to run proper tests is what separates teams that learn from teams that just guess.

Use the calculator above to plan your tests, and remember: patience is a competitive advantage.

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